Macro Panel

Four capital-priced variables, quoted per tenor. Each axis names the number it publishes, the threshold convention, the source of record and the version of the definition that settles it.

4 axes · 8 live tenors · 0 forecasts

01 · USD bn

AI capex

Combined capex at Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta, taken from filings rather than guidance.

Next quarterReference

—

Reference only — no forecasts yet

No forecasts yetView contract

Next four quartersReference

—

Reference only — no forecasts yet

No forecasts yetView contract

Reference: Sum of the four companies’ reported capital expenditure in the same fiscal quarter
Formula: capex_usd_bn = Σ (payments to acquire property and equipment, four companies, quarter)
Source of record: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission — EDGAR Cash flow statement, “payments to acquire property and equipment”, per company
Definition: rmn.macro.ai_capex@1.0.0Quarterly, as each company files its 10-Q or 10-K

02 · GW

Power

Peak ERCOT system load for the settlement month — how much power the build-out actually draws.

Next quarterReference

—

Reference only — no forecasts yet

No forecasts yetView contract

Same month next yearReference

—

Reference only — no forecasts yet

No forecasts yetView contract

Reference: Prior-year peak load for the same calendar month
Formula: peak_load_gw = max(hourly ERCOT system load over the settlement month)
Source of record: Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) Actual system load, hourly (MW), maximum for the month
Definition: rmn.macro.power@1.0.0Monthly, after ERCOT publishes finalised hourly load

03 · percent per annum

Funding

Upper bound of the FOMC target range: the discount rate every long-duration capex plan is priced against.

In three monthsReference

—

Reference only — no forecasts yet

No forecasts yetView contract

In one yearReference

—

Reference only — no forecasts yet

No forecasts yetView contract

Reference: Upper bound in force on the day the market is created
Formula: policy_rate_pct = upper bound of the FOMC target range after the reference meeting
Source of record: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Target range for the federal funds rate, upper bound, per FOMC statement
Definition: rmn.macro.funding@1.0.0Eight FOMC meetings per year

04 · final rules

Trade

Final export-control rules published by BIS — how fast the trade perimeter is moving.

Next six monthsReference

—

Reference only — no forecasts yet

No forecasts yetView contract

Next twelve monthsReference

—

Reference only — no forecasts yet

No forecasts yetView contract

Reference: Same window in the prior year
Formula: bis_actions = count(Federal Register final rules from BIS with “export control” in the title, in window)
Source of record: Office of the Federal Register — Federal Register API Document count where type = RULE and title contains “export control”
Definition: rmn.macro.trade@1.0.0Event-driven; counted at the end of each window

Methodology

· Every tenor quotes a level against a stated threshold — never a bare probability.
· A tenor with no forecasts is marked reference only. The prior is not a crowd view.
· Order is editorial (capex, power, funding, trade), not by recency.

/api/macro/panel · rmn.event-definition@1.0.0 · rmn.macro-panel@1.0.0